Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
