A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
